![]() ![]() The broader range established is 1.05-1.11, though most recently, it has narrowed a shade to 1.06-1.11. AUD/NZD Daily ChartĬhart Created Using TradingView AUD/NZD: Re-attempting to form a base?ĪUD/NZD has been essentially sideways since the beginning of the year. A fall below the May low of 0.6000 would be needed for the broad bearishness to resume. Last week’s fall below the resistance-turned-support at 0.6250 has scaled back the upward pressure, putting NZD/USD back within its well-defined range. See “ New Zealand Dollar Flexes Muscles Ahead of RBNZ NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD Price Action”, published July 11. NZD/USD rose in mid-July above key resistance on the upper edge of a downtrend channel since the start of the year but subsequently failed to cross another vital hurdle at the May high of 0.6385.Īs mentioned in the previous update, a move above 0.6385 is vital for the broader bearishness to reverse. On technical charts, three signs indicate NZD/USD remains at best within its well-established range from March. NZD/USD Daily ChartĬhart Created Using TradingView NZD/USD: Looking for a clear direction Markets are pricing in around a 50% chance of another RBNZ rate hike with no rate cuts until mid-2024. However, stubbornly high NZ inflation (climbed 1.1% on-month in the June quarter Vs 0.9% expected) complicates the policy outlook. ![]() The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold earlier this month, with a view that NZ rates are at their peak. A more data-dependent / ‘wait-and-watch’ could put USD back within its recent ranges, whereas a dovish hike could exert downward pressure on USD, boosting NZD. ![]() The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates one last time this year, with the key focus on its forward guidance.Ī hawkish hike could provide support to the US dollar globally. In this regard, the key focus is on the US Fed rate decision on Wednesday. Those looking for directional plays in the New Zealand dollar against some of its peers may have to wait a little longer, at least until there are signs of divergence in monetary policy outlooks.Ĭonverging monetary policy outlooks have left currency pairs to the ebb and flow of data, which tends to be at best noise unless viewed from a zoomed-out perspective. ![]()
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